Bank of Utah recently hosted its Annual Economic Forecast Event, bringing together leading economists and financial experts to provide valuable insights on the year ahead. Held in Ogden, Salt Lake City and Kaysville, the event featured Stifel Financial economists Dr. Lindsey Piegza and Lauren Henderson at all three locations. In Ogden, they were joined by senior economist Michael Jeanfreau from the Utah Department of Workforce Services, who provided insights on Utah’s economy, while in Kaysville, renowned author, speaker and financial consultant Garrett Gunderson shared strategies for personal wealth and fulfillment.
From economic trends and workforce challenges to personal finance strategies, the discussions provided key takeaways for individuals and businesses navigating the evolving financial landscape.
Economic Outlook: Resilient Consumers, Inflation, and Policy Uncertainty
Dr. Lindsey Piegza and Lauren Henderson of Stifel Financial discussed three aspects of the economy — the consumer, inflation and fiscal policy.
Consumer Resilience & Rising Debt: Despite inflation and other factors, the consumer has remained resilient, but a slowdown in consumption could undermine growth sooner than later. On the inflation front, inflation has come down from peak levels, but the lack of progress as of late certainly complicates the pathway for Fed rate relief, with the Fed still pricing in two rate cuts this year. Regarding fiscal policy, while any near-term fiscal support is likely to soften a downturn and prop up the economy, it’s also likely to leave the economy increasingly vulnerable.
Inflation & Interest Rates: There are signs that consumers feel the pain of higher interest rates and prices. They are turning to credit cards and other forms of credit to sustain their spending habits. Delinquency rates have crept higher, reflecting consumer concerns about future financial stability.
Inflation and higher costs are impacting businesses and the labor market. Businesses are facing higher borrowing costs, parts and materials costs, rent and labor costs, leading to a slowdown in investment. To combat these rising costs, many companies are turning to technology and AI to replace expensive labor. Up to 80 percent of businesses plan to adjust their workforce by adopting new technologies over the next 12 to 18 months.
These higher costs are also wreaking havoc on the housing market, creating a “lockout effect,” making it too expensive for many would-be homebuyers to enter the market, as well as a “lock-in effect,” preventing current homeowners from selling due to the significant increase in mortgage rates. In the commercial real estate market, trillions in commercial loans will reset at much higher rates in the next one to three years, causing loan-to-value rates to increase between 30 and 90 percent.
Policy Uncertainty: New policy measures are still to be determined. Proposed tax cuts could fuel a spending binge, putting more pressure on inflation, while efforts to reduce the size of government could offset the loss of revenues from a tax cut.
Despite these challenges, Piegza and Henderson expect the economy to remain in positive territory in the second half of the year, though at a modest growth rate. The risk of recession is reduced from last year but still sits at around 15 percent over the next 12 to 18 months.
Listen to our latest podcast featuring Dr. Piegza and Branden Hansen
Utah’s Economic Strengths & Challenges
Michael Jeanfreau, senior economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services, highlighted that while Utah has experienced strong overall growth rates, there is some bifurcation — a split or uneven growth — between different industries and areas within the state.
Growth & Workforce: Utah is still one of the fastest-growing states, but the economy is starting to slow down with employment, labor and housing price pressures. It’s more difficult to bring the labor force into the state as housing prices are becoming prohibitive. If Utah experiences a recession in the near future, it’s in an excellent position. It’s one of the most diverse economies, and the state should recover from a recession fairly quickly.
Utah’s unemployment rate in December was 3.5 percent, which is extremely low. Low unemployment rates contribute to a more competitive hiring market. Companies can’t find someone unemployed with the skill set they need but have to lure workers from other employers, which means paying more for that worker to entice them away from their current job.
Housing Affordability Crisis: Utah's median home prices have skyrocketed, making housing increasingly unaffordable for many residents. Those who do get into a house are purchasing homes that are six or seven times their household income. During a regular market, residents should purchase a home that is about 3.5 times their household income. This is a supply-side problem, as developers have been putting off projects, hoping for lower interest rates. There has not been enough building to keep up with demand.
Long-Term Resilience: Despite these challenges, Utah's young, educated population and diversification are positive strengths that help the state perform better than much of the nation.
The Mindset of Abundance
Wrapping up the event, Garrett Gunderson offered a refreshing perspective on personal wealth and fulfillment. He said living in an abundance mindset, rather than a scarcity mindset, is the true key to success and a more fulfilling life, outlining winning personas like the mindful manager, planner, creator and catalyst.
Gunderson’s journey led him to this discovery. He recounted how a pivotal conversation with his wife made him realize he was neglecting his family to pursue business success. Reevaluating his priorities shifted his mindset to value creation rather than accumulation.
Four strategies lead to achieving abundance:
- Find a co-creator. Surround yourself with like-minded individuals who elevate your potential.
- Eliminate distractions. Focus on what truly matters instead of getting caught up in busyness.
- Delegate roles. Recognize where your time is best spent and entrust others with tasks outside your expertise.
- Collaborate. Leverage partnerships to amplify success.
He encouraged the audience to let go of fear, trust their intuition and focus on creating value for others rather than just pursuing their own interests. The key, he said, is to design a life you don't want to retire from, one centered around love and fulfillment.
Looking Ahead
Bank of Utah appreciates the insights shared by this year’s speakers and thanks them for their contributions. Staying informed on economic trends and expert perspectives helps individuals and businesses make financial decisions with confidence.
For a deeper dive into the data and insights shared at the event, view the presentation slides from Stifel and the Utah Department of Workforce Services here.
